World Bank Warns Commodity Prices to Rise 16% in 2026 as War in Middle East Disrupts Global Supply Chains

The World Bank’s April 2026 Commodity Markets Outlook paints a stark picture for global consumers: average commodity prices are projected to rise by 16% in 2026 — the first annual increase since 2022 — driven primarily by the devastating impact of the Middle East war on energy, fertilizer, and metals markets.

Assuming the most acute phase of trade disruptions ends by mid-year, the Bank projects average energy prices will increase by 24% in 2026, with base metals and precious metals prices both reaching all-time highs.

Energy: The Dominant Driver

The Bank’s baseline scenario assumes Brent crude averaging $86 per barrel, up $26 from its January forecast. However, this estimate carries enormous uncertainty. If disruptions prove more protracted, the Bank’s alternative scenario sees Brent averaging $95 to $115 per barrel in 2026.

Natural gas prices have also soared amid supply shortfalls, with European benchmark prices rising sharply as LNG cargoes are diverted to replace lost Middle Eastern supplies. The disruption to fertilizer production — heavily concentrated in the Gulf region — threatens global food production costs.

Precious and Base Metals at Records

Gold has already demonstrated its ability to trade above $5,000 per ounce, reaching an all-time high of $5,589 in January 2026 before settling around $4,542. Central bank buying, geopolitical uncertainty, and de-dollarization trends provide structural support.

Copper, aluminum, and other base metals are projected to reach all-time highs as supply constraints meet robust demand from electrification, AI infrastructure, and the energy transition. The World Bank noted that the supply shocks from the Middle East conflict are unusually broad-based, affecting not just oil but also fertilizers, food commodities, and metals.

Risks Tilted to the Upside

The World Bank emphasized that risks to its commodity price projections are “tilted firmly toward higher prices.” The Bank’s special focus section quantifies the effects of geopolitical oil supply shocks and finds that during periods of surging geopolitical risk, a 1% reduction in oil production generates a peak price increase of more than 11% — nearly double previous estimates.

For policymakers and investors, the message is clear. The era of cheap, reliably available commodities that defined the post-Cold War period has given way to a new paradigm where geopolitical risk, supply chain security, and resource nationalism are permanent features of the landscape.